Paul's proven himself to be a scumbag who'll go to any lengths to get what he wants many times. It'd be almost impossible to believe someone like that innocent, especially when there's lots of circumstantial evidence against them. Plus he interfered with the case by deleting the CCTV that showed him at Lassiters.
It's a similar scenario to Aesop's Fable "The boy who cried wolf" in that the one time Paul is telling the truth nobody believes him because they've been burnt too many times by him.
The most unrealistic part of the storyline as far as I'm concerned is Steph's belief in his innocence.
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